Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8443efa8b0004015e458d99edab5b3452ed9cd85580e40cc218f352d4ac4d8df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 464.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 235.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 231.89$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 200.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 197.41$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 177.8$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 162.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 155.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 152.66$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 25c | 151.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 150$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 138$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 13c | 114.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 63c | 109.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 107.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 47c | 103.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 13c | 97.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 53c | 90.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 85.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 84.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 73.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 68.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 64.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 60.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 55c | 57.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 42c | 56.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 42c | 55.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 54.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 50c | 53.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 54c | 51.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 48.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 44.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 46c | 42.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 55c | 39.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 56c | 38.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 36.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 31c | 36.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 32.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 49c | 32.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 31.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 35c | 30.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…c4b2backed Yes | 45c | 30.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 26.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf122…d07cbacked Yes | 45c | 22.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 45c | 22.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 54c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…4f8fbacked No | 55c | 21.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 62c | 21.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 53c | 21.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.