Golf · resolved market
Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 PGA Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8469cd8e3fbb7cfbd313bcdb9ec7f269519993208ccd4371149fc141a9309437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 5c | 5,262$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 5c | 3,542$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 4c | 2,397$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…fa04backed Yes | 5c | 2,183$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…1ddbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,603$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,292$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 8c | 1,210$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ae…be7fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,105$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…2e74backed Yes | 30c | 899.5$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.81 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07f…06b8backed Yes | 12c | 723.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 625.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd703…fb35backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes | 4c | 462.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…d07bbacked Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 12c | 379.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…9222backed Yes | 28c | 358.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Yes | 4c | 341.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 5c | 340.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…eec6backed Yes | 4c | 308$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 4c | 307.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2046backed Yes | 8c | 261.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…7c5abacked Yes | 13c | 215.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 80c | 210.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 184$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 295 | 3.7%11 W · 284 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ac…b255backed Yes | 30c | 166.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…2b92backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…501bbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…3947backed No | 65c | 39.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 PGA Championship?this page
- Will Alex Noren win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Bryson DeChambeau win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Cameron Young win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Davis Riley win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Jhonattan Vegas win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Max Homa win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Sahith Theegala win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Sam Burns win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 PGA Championship?Yes won
- Will Si Woo Kim win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Sungjae Im win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Tom Kim win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Tony Finau win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Wyndham Clark win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
- Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 PGA Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.