Olympics · resolved market
Men's Group B - Sweden vs. Italy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84c0b6ba7a5046aa0d36be03dfcad719491e2dbb779a7bda5cef93a4ed857068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swedenof Sweden, Italy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Italy | 3c | 15,365$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Italy | 3c | 8,093$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.75 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Italy | 2c | 6,621$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.73 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Italy | 2c | 6,353$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.98 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Italy | 2c | 5,363$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…43dbbacked Italy | 2c | 5,106$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd068…c3bfbacked Italy | 2c | 3,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Italy | 2c | 2,638$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…8a64backed Italy | 2c | 2,103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…da73backed Italy | 2c | 1,800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…8e6cbacked Italy | 2c | 1,711$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Italy | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Italy | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Italy | 3c | 1,386$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…238ebacked Italy | 2c | 1,379$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb5…7349backed Italy | 7c | 1,201$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Italy | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Italy | 3c | 1,075$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e4…22cbbacked Italy | 2c | 1,042$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…b8c6backed Italy | 2c | 1,021$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Italy | 2c | 1,018$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Italy | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…4d18backed Italy | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…3fc4backed Italy | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917b…f616backed Italy | 2c | 978.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0b…44fdbacked Italy | 9c | 852.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Italy | 2c | 818.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Italy | 3c | 816.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2e31backed Italy | 5c | 805.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Italy | 6c | 800$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…e9e7backed Italy | 2c | 759.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…f345backed Italy | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Italy | 2c | 635.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2e…d945backed Italy | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Italy | 6c | 505.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Italy | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…7b3bbacked Italy | 3c | 499.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked Italy | 4c | 489.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Italy | 3c | 431$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…e27cbacked Italy | 3c | 407.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Italy | 4c | 389.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked Italy | 3c | 385.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0f…8a46backed Italy | 7c | 381.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…b7b5backed Italy | 6c | 357.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Italy | 5c | 346.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Italy | 6c | 339$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69cf…ca78backed Italy | 3c | 330.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8445…bc14backed Italy | 6c | 237.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…80bcbacked Italy | 7c | 158.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeda…41d8backed Italy | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.