Ligue 1 · resolved market
Lille OSC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84c49679524ea5a83676b183e1db470d30a5975e8637697c1485dcaf66098ccf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…e2b8backed Under | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 13c | 874.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.04 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 617.73$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.47 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 14c | 444.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.22 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 227.42$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 27c | 185.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 17c | 160.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 34c | 142.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 34c | 137.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 12c | 112.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 82.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 32c | 78.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c4…3704backed Over | 59c | 71.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 68.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over | 58c | 51.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 50c | 48.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…fef9backed Over | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 75c | 24.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lille OSC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5this page
- Lille OSC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Lille OSC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5Over won
- Lille OSC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Over won
- Lille OSC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.