Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ce71936654447139fb414b25ce718d29075b913d68b609b48c7aad57bc7277
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 1,782$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.83 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 26c | 1,105$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 73c | 822.22$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 74c | 669.39$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 78c | 555.93$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 74c | 399.95$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…402ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 20c | 296.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 14c | 262.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 219.74$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…73a3backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 152.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 26c | 134.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 74c | 108.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 92.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 73c | 76.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 71c | 75.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 73.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 73.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 73.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 73.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 73.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 73.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 73.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 29c | 72.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 28c | 68.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ae…a900backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 66.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…0cb2backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 29c | 38.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1c…ddeebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 23.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 75c | 19.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 79c | 13.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.