Bundesliga · resolved market
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77d17bc318a830338bdfda1a6186f07233bf2927b7974a23e9131682784cd38b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 3,605$2,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.27 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…09fcbacked Over | 43c | 2,628$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 39c | 2,592$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.63 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 2,435$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.2 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed Over | 43c | 2,425$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 2,287$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.03 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Under | 57c | 2,000$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 39c | 1,466$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.29 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 57c | 1,449$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.01 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 40c | 1,408$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.95 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee2…c9cdbacked Over | 41c | 1,172$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 1,130$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.62 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 25c | 806.48$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Under | 74c | 527.66$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 42c | 519.37$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.14 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 38c | 506.74$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.56 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 61c | 496.79$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.55 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 43c | 482.9$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 449.48$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 43c | 449.19$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 410.51$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.91 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Over | 40c | 410.1$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 57c | 395.3$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…d3ddbacked Under | 71c | 393.04$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 33c | 364.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 69c | 343.51$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 43c | 336.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 29c | 299.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 296.51$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 56c | 272.73$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 44c | 263.56$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…c7a9backed Over | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 221.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 42c | 193.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 78c | 151.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…0381backed Under | 65c | 137.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 38c | 124.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 42c | 118.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 57c | 117$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 78c | 105.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bb…e40fbacked Under | 58c | 105.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 26c | 100.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Under | 78c | 84.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 28c | 83.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…6d0dbacked Over | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Over | 39c | 62.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 58c | 60.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 72c | 58.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…90fdbacked Under | 72c | 56.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 72c | 56.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 69c | 49.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Under | 60c | 47.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8740backed Over | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…f247backed Over | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…571ebacked Over | 35c | 41.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 36.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 43c | 30.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 72c | 30.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7852…3eabbacked Under | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebd…2502backed Over | 42c | 27.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 57c | 23.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.