MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84e6ba3d2d0a569fff0abf6d926651460b0c705493c12ed5d7545676b7c7d059
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 6,189$2,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,782.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 5,888$3,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,629.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 59c | 1,720$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 36c | 998.79$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.23 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 56c | 708.52$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 463.67$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 306.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 29c | 295.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 263.41$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 27c | 244.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 200.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 26c | 182.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 50c | 170.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 68c | 162.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 68c | 140.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Over | 57c | 123.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 32c | 109.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 67c | 108.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 49c | 95.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 23c | 95.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 66.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 71c | 46.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 56c | 44.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 54c | 38.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 43c | 37.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 34c | 31.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 55c | 30.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 64c | 21.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 60c | 21.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 70c | 19.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.