MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45a4392b81a0308a21f9f23381d357f3139060d5f44c2d1bde5f638e33887b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 5,702$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.63 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 56c | 3,760$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…a565backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 1,374$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 1,173$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 942.3$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 630.49$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 561.27$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.82 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 29c | 434.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 432.67$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 371.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 348.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 268.59$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 197.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 33c | 157.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 144.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 131.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 81.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 81.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 76.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 55.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Atlanta Braves | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 45.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 40.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…0a3ebacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 37.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 36.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 31.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 26.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…380bbacked Atlanta Braves | 56c | 26.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 25.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Atlanta Braves | 68c | 21.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Atlanta Braves | 78c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…d6debacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 15.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.