Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x854c014f5db56b7c4145893bf3bbad20df00fc9546ccb5d46a83bb7bcb063a51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DOGSENTof Winter Bear, DOGSENT
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,369 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25e4…85afbacked Winter Bear | 1c | 4,998$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed DOGSENT | 37c | 1,537$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.62 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e3…59cdbacked DOGSENT | 55c | 1,509$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.43 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…2f35backed DOGSENT | 54c | 1,126$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.21 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Winter Bear | 3c | 974.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Winter Bear | 32c | 960.36$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.11 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Winter Bear | 51c | 947.65$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.89 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…5616backed DOGSENT | 72c | 887.33$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Winter Bear | 72c | 807.02$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked DOGSENT | 44c | 635.59$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.02 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Winter Bear | 34c | 624.25$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.09 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked DOGSENT | 32c | 588.43$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.33 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9b4fbacked Winter Bear | 80c | 565.74$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed DOGSENT | 59c | 562.98$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.62 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f137backed DOGSENT | 63c | 496.39$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.41 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Winter Bear | 42c | 429.89$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.55 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed DOGSENT | 25c | 401.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.43 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Winter Bear | 38c | 366.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Winter Bear | 44c | 344.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.21 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed DOGSENT | 61c | 326.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…c250backed DOGSENT | 50c | 305.24$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked DOGSENT | 9c | 299.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.52 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…e5d6backed DOGSENT | 49c | 278.35$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Winter Bear | 18c | 264.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed DOGSENT | 70c | 261.51$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed DOGSENT | 48c | 254.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed DOGSENT | 25c | 246$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Winter Bear | 34c | 238.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed DOGSENT | 30c | 230$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Winter Bear | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Winter Bear | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed DOGSENT | 44c | 187.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Winter Bear | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked Winter Bear | 62c | 163.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed DOGSENT | 23c | 154.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed DOGSENT | 67c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed DOGSENT | 34c | 146.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Winter Bear | 52c | 113.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed DOGSENT | 32c | 111.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed DOGSENT | 50c | 101.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…999bbacked DOGSENT | 70c | 100.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Winter Bear | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Winter Bear | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…537cbacked Winter Bear | 70c | 98.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…63c1backed DOGSENT | 33c | 97.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b5…ac7ebacked DOGSENT | 55c | 93.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked Winter Bear | 34c | 89.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Winter Bear | 34c | 85.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Winter Bear | 22c | 84.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff93…91bfbacked DOGSENT | 59c | 84.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed DOGSENT | 13c | 80.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed DOGSENT | 70c | 80.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Winter Bear | 55c | 75.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…588bbacked Winter Bear | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…ebdcbacked DOGSENT | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked DOGSENT | 44c | 64.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…9055backed DOGSENT | 67c | 59.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 76cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Winter Bear | 39c | 56.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Winter Bear | 55c | 54.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed DOGSENT | 60c | 53.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Winter Bear | 44c | 51.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2bf6backed DOGSENT | 55c | 49.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Winter Bear | 33c | 45.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…4548backed Winter Bear | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Winter Bear | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed DOGSENT | 48c | 27.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked DOGSENT | 62c | 27.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…4cc3backed Winter Bear | 73c | 25.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…3231backed DOGSENT | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563c…0dbfbacked Winter Bear | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed Winter Bear | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Winter Bear | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d1…fdf8backed Winter Bear | 79c | 18.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed Winter Bear | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…52d4backed DOGSENT | 78c | 16.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Winter Bear | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…2d22backed DOGSENT | 73c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs DOGSENT (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs DOGSENT - Game 1 WinnerDOGSENT won
- Dota 2: Winter Bear vs DOGSENT - Game 2 WinnerWinter Bear won
- Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs DOGSENT (+1.5)DOGSENT won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.