Australian A League · resolved market
Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x856509c302c76d8d0e53213b01902e7681bd4603355749d81bf8bea12fb61f04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55a1…db28backed Yes | 29c | 14,356$4,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,163.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 8,309$5,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,434.98 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 71c | 6,500$4,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 48c | 3,851$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.95 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Yes | 59c | 2,557$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 51c | 2,060$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.81 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 69c | 1,512$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.78 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…2266backed Yes | 33c | 1,437$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 28c | 1,380$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.13 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,210$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.7 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 42c | 1,026$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.67 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 64c | 959.79$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.26 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 37c | 755.21$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.59 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2492backed No | 25c | 680.52$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 631.24$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.06 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…26e5backed Yes | 29c | 604.14$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.27 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 41c | 547.95$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…349fbacked Yes | 67c | 514.93$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Yes | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c8…f309backed Yes | 68c | 492.39$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff49…2f07backed Yes | 26c | 470.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 51c | 443.14$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Yes | 69c | 349.35$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Yes | 37c | 305$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…2861backed Yes | 78c | 255.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 22c | 243.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Yes | 72c | 233.42$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 224.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.64 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…997cbacked Yes | 76c | 198.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 72c | 195.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked Yes | 37c | 186$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…83eabacked Yes | 56c | 177.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Yes | 34c | 147.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Yes | 37c | 146.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Yes | 75c | 123.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…629fbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 16c | 98.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…8079backed No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…6823backed No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 66c | 77.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 30c | 66.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 76c | 60.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…968fbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 72c | 59.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 65c | 58.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…6f4abacked Yes | 42c | 57.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 65c | 55.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 31c | 51.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…a9a3backed Yes | 56c | 45.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…30c4backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Yes | 38c | 30.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…4113backed Yes | 52c | 30.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 40c | 28.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…6c60backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…a1e4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed No | 72c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-12-31?Yes won
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-12-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.