Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85b2b08582ee3c3dfc0d79ff7440b10342250db82e0914512e110314cac6c2d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked No | 76c | 702.24$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.87 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 26c | 615.62$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.13 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 3c | 501.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 17c | 457.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 448$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.42 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 426.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 407.82$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 269.66$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 17c | 232.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 15c | 211.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 76c | 210.66$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 174.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 149.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 11c | 132.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 123.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 25c | 119.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 119.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 20c | 106.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 22c | 99.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 19c | 85.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 82.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 74.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…ef6fbacked No | 73c | 74.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 30c | 55.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 51.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 31c | 48.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 80c | 43.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 40.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 37.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe528…aefcbacked No | 75c | 34.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 33.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1c…dd59backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 29.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 28.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 25.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 77c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 25.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 24.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.