Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83a20b68c4a7a48f68babcf60a2205bcfbe020833c2f8de0a4a10c8770d55b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 601.78$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 472.25$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 42c | 438.83$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.39 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 274.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 227.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 39c | 193.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 181.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 179.19$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 177.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 171.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 171.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 161.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 147$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 42c | 138.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 137.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 121.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 48c | 112.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 55c | 111.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 110$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 73c | 104.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 40c | 99.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 88.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 87.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 84.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 41c | 80.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 40c | 78.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 78.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 63c | 73.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 73.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 35c | 69.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 68.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 63c | 63.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 62.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 36c | 61.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 59.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 77c | 57.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 56.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 41c | 55.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 76c | 54.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 52.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 47.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 45.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 44.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 35c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 62c | 41.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 42c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 39.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 37.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 37.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 36c | 36.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 49c | 36.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 39c | 36.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 58c | 34.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 33.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 49c | 30.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 30.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…f861backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 59c | 29.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 28.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 56c | 28.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 39c | 28.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 28.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 26.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 25.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 24.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 70c | 22.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 54c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…5951backed No | 60c | 19.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 18.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 17.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.