TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,705

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,702 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c601.78$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes40c472.25$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.318,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes42c438.83$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.391,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes49c274.4$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.93,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No24c227.26$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.411,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes52c199.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9927328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes39c193.2$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1823436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No38c181.4$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.265,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c179.19$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.456,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c177.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.926219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c171.68$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c171.25$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No64c161.5$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No24c147$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.724,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes42c138.31$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3430332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No54c137.09$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.854,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c121.58$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.889,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes48c112.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2129536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes55c111.76$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7961820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes32c110$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.434,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa595…cdf1backed Yes73c104.22$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2215561.9%96 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1913461.2%82 W · 52 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x379f…7d70backed No68c99.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.991266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes40c99.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.927331.5%23 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No63c90$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.763757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No40c88.27$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.72,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No56c87.32$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.941,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes17c84.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.141,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes41c80.58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8219552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No40c78.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4728244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No54c78.79$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.761,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.345,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No63c73.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No63c73.41$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes30c69.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9927421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes35c69.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2338830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes49c68.1$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.71,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No63c63.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0110857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No43c62.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.132,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes36c61.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6734935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.683745.9%17 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c59.18$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.655,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked Yes77c57.29$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0612072.5%87 W · 33 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No62c56.46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes41c55.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5419427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed Yes76c54.78$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2723845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No60c52.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.531,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43f2…e722backed Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c47.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.426,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c45.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.023,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes41c44.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0142148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.654,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…744abacked Yes35c44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.462825%7 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes61c42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3845540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No62c41.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4990555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No42c41.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3153951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.352828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.853353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed No62c39.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.817460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes40c39.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8933746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c37.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.694,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No54c37.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.121,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No36c36.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1433350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes49c36.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5199961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes39c36.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2331936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1441…0b51backed Yes58c34.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.642133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No61c33.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.413,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No48c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2817747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes49c30.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6337570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No41c30.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.382,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe00f…f861backed Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81250%6 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+85.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No59c29.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6630849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes40c28.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3870148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No56c28.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9975546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No39c28.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.199262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No63c28.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.962,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No60c26.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No58c25.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.722,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1576936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.753455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No52c24.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.872,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4606…7f19backed No70c22.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.411664.7%75 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes54c21.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1586952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes73c21.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7740871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf0…5951backed No60c19.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.441040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes73c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1766758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No57c18.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.452,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No58c17.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.291,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.