Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764685b7a82b172d7acdd4c325fc4ebf6cf9f164be713f51544c2509159155d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 1,238$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 1,152$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.14 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 2c | 931.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 73c | 739.95$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.47 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 67c | 490$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 486.13$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 444.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 17c | 372.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…024dbacked Yes | 27c | 333.89$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 52c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 19c | 186.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 7c | 186.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 183.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 19c | 180.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 29c | 163.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 148.76$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 147.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 76c | 145.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 144.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 121.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 20c | 116.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 74c | 114.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 112.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 71c | 110.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 109.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 27c | 106.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 76c | 102.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 20c | 87.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 22c | 80.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 77.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 75.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 73.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 68c | 69.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 69c | 69.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 19c | 68.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 73c | 68.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 64.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 64.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 63.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…a1a5backed No | 80c | 61.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 58.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 53.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 51.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 30c | 51.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 68c | 50.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6107…4176backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 44.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…7a34backed No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5b…1566backed No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 39.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 37.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 33.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 28.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 80c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 22.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…e591backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 80c | 17.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…5951backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.