Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85ba445627a52b0e0a387dadabffb34f145c14478c9f664a95971c602e26e930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,149$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 32c | 1,083$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.76 | 608 | 22.9%139 W · 469 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 7c | 599.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 177 | 26.6%47 W · 130 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed No | 77c | 431.43$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed Yes | 35c | 424.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 27c | 404.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 544 | 22.6%123 W · 421 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 11c | 370.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 197 | 20.3%40 W · 157 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 15c | 369.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 51c | 294$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 721 | 39%281 W · 440 L | +37.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 32c | 279.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 269.25$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 191.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 190.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1,843 | 27.5%506 W · 1,337 L | +23.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked No | 49c | 188.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 187.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 140.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 140.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 30c | 140.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 123.54$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 108.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 634 | 55.7%353 W · 281 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 100.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 901 | 45.7%412 W · 489 L | -29.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…00f1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 83.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 25c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 473 | 33.2%157 W · 316 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 69.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 24c | 65.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x317f…99f8backed Yes | 18c | 62.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 574 | 53.5%307 W · 267 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 42c | 41.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 43c | 40.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 411 | 51.3%211 W · 200 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 916 | 62.3%571 W · 345 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 35.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 33.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,919 | 62.8%1,205 W · 714 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 55c | 29.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked No | 62c | 29.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked No | 56c | 21.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 555 | 58.7%326 W · 229 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 26?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.