Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x825465e44461267402e45ca4545c5d1b55e40bec72cf0ca3f1f7f44a3fd8af5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 38c | 789.33$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.57 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 66c | 467.6$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.48 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 13c | 399.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 278.24$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 62c | 273$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.45 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 36c | 264.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 60c | 260$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 39c | 251.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 30c | 174.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 35c | 149.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 140$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 136.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 133.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 124.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 121.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 59c | 119.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 114.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed No | 69c | 112.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 59c | 108.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e96…7527backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 85.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 82.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 69c | 70.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…8999backed Yes | 63c | 66.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 63.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 45.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 62c | 43.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 56c | 41.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 48c | 40.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 59c | 25.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde86…f015backed Yes | 52c | 24.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 53c | 20.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 26?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.