Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb367d07bf7957f7cb6d439ada1e2f636e8eaf3d87d911a6c0932872afc5b29a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 34c | 731.59$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.86 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 21c | 684.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.92 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 13c | 434.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.59 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 57c | 323.51$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 11c | 264.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.01 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 32c | 217.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.33 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 28c | 202.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.89 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 183.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 67c | 156.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 14c | 155.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 65c | 145.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 145$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 19c | 110.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 91.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 34c | 90.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 82.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…8999backed No | 66c | 81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 19c | 59.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 37c | 56.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 73c | 53.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 43c | 41.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 54c | 40.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…24e2backed Yes | 25c | 40.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 40.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 76c | 37.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 36.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 35.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 28.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 74c | 22.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 26?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.