Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85c40b8ef0a83b2fcef5cdfbaf8743268ec92958b460b28da5265b64bceda413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Everton FCof Nottingham Forest FC, Everton FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Everton FC | 76c | 5,661$4,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.03 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Nottingham Forest FC | 25c | 2,114$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.58 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Nottingham Forest FC | 19c | 1,609$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.93 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Everton FC | 75c | 1,345$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.25 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nottingham Forest FC | 26c | 1,250$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe271…1570backed Nottingham Forest FC | 23c | 264.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -9.5wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Nottingham Forest FC | 23c | 218.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 24c | 175.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 15c | 151.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Everton FC | 75c | 100.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…20fbbacked Everton FC | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Everton FC | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Everton FC | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Everton FC | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Everton FC | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Everton FC | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Everton FC | 78c | 16.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.