Asian League · resolved market
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e8b9eeb09518e651723ca8e4114600c35fc729fbd62aaeba40f5167eb65277
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86da…6428backed No | 58c | 23,616$13,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,918.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 42c | 13,115$5,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,508.09 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed No | 59c | 8,474$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 35c | 6,486$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.95 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 42c | 4,286$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 42c | 4,286$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 4,074$2,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.78 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,970$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.68 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Yes | 41c | 1,463$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 41c | 1,085$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.74 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 34c | 1,040$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.92 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 4c | 561.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 443.58$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.31 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked No | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 288.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 42c | 277.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 8c | 262.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Yes | 42c | 262.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 42c | 145$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 66c | 136.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 66c | 136.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 38c | 114.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 42c | 101.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…56b1backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 42c | 92.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed No | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked No | 66c | 83.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 59c | 75.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Yes | 42c | 67.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed No | 60c | 59.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 42c | 55.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed No | 69c | 53.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 69c | 49.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 66c | 41.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875a…4d33backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7c…c310backed No | 59c | 33.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Yes | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 43 | 76.7%33 W · 10 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Yes | 41c | 28.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 67c | 27.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…248abacked Yes | 42c | 26.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…85e2backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fa…bea1backed No | 59c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 61c | 24.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 61c | 24.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw?No won
- Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.