MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85f902a1263b5045c0c100ceba913d569286b141075ec063e3afd57eabd55605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 20,200$10,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,494 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed New York Yankees | 47c | 17,330$8,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,145.15 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 7,300$5,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked New York Yankees | 23c | 5,984$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.89 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 2,379$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.34 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed New York Yankees | 47c | 2,272$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.68 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 2,108$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.92 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Tampa Bay Rays | 12c | 1,440$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.54 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed New York Yankees | 33c | 1,200$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed New York Yankees | 43c | 1,000$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 756.41$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.41 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked New York Yankees | 47c | 691.49$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed New York Yankees | 47c | 691.49$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 608$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.68 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed New York Yankees | 46c | 584.72$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.38 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 534$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 385.92$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed New York Yankees | 35c | 331.27$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 315.64$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 29c | 240$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.3 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked New York Yankees | 47c | 203.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked New York Yankees | 67c | 187.64$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.72 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 50c | 185.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Tampa Bay Rays | 25c | 170.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed New York Yankees | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Yankees | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed New York Yankees | 44c | 73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 55.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Yankees | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked New York Yankees | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…245abacked New York Yankees | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.