Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8630f1eebd3797512d8c5855029b76a3f5f9d4c9e8662a7763933ba0a2ff732d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Team Liquid | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389b…8d69backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 700$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 499.87$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.05 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 303.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Liquid | 50c | 208.8$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Team Liquid | 54c | 201.84$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…c7c9backed Team Liquid | 60c | 166.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…c91fbacked Team Liquid | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…6b82backed Team Liquid | 66c | 61.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…1c0abacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 37.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…0b1abacked Team Liquid | 60c | 35.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…90b1backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 28.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b8…1762backed Team Liquid | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe7…1311backed Team Liquid | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe575…b86dbacked Team Liquid | 55c | 22.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…ce61backed Team Liquid | 55c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.