Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f432c1d9a959a3eb83be789a455726073e9e4d0e13864128735260613f9b93b

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Natus Vincere
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $171,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $195,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,364 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0dcf…c556backed Natus Vincere	41c	33,114$13,612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,612.12	337	46.3%156 W · 181 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid	60c	31,581$18,993 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,587.83	551	57%314 W · 237 L	+17.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Liquid	63c	13,770$8,728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,042.09	396	60.1%238 W · 158 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Liquid	61c	10,064$6,090 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,974.28	201	59.7%120 W · 81 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Natus Vincere	8c	9,830$777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$777.37	656	25.6%168 W · 488 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Natus Vincere	33c	7,356$2,449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,448.79	103	42.7%44 W · 59 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere	35c	7,260$2,531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,530.73	1,577	43.9%692 W · 885 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere	27c	6,082$1,642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,641.95	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked Team Liquid	67c	5,984$4,033 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,950.7	102	36.3%37 W · 65 L	-10.7wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere	36c	5,778$2,052 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,052.03	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed Team Liquid	65c	4,465$2,902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,562.75	66	63.6%42 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed Team Liquid	64c	4,460$2,872 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,587.83	97	49.5%48 W · 49 L	-7.3wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere	35c	4,259$1,491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,491.12	328	54.9%180 W · 148 L	+11.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Team Liquid	64c	3,849$2,457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,392.8	142	53.5%76 W · 66 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed Natus Vincere	40c	3,800$1,532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,531.99	161	42.9%69 W · 92 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere	35c	3,420$1,195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,195	209	49.3%103 W · 106 L	+8.4wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Liquid	60c	3,312$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,311.55	545	56.5%308 W · 237 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere	35c	3,287$1,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,142.85	1,155	47.8%552 W · 603 L	+29.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Liquid	64c	3,058$1,972 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,086.51	804	43.9%353 W · 451 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcff4…3609backed Natus Vincere	45c	3,021$1,371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,370.52	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb328…4df1backed Natus Vincere	36c	2,830$1,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,018.8	14	50%7 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Liquid	66c	2,270$1,489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$781.27	476	60.7%289 W · 187 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere	41c	2,142$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.42	568	48.8%277 W · 291 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere	36c	1,937$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706.57	666	62.2%414 W · 252 L	+60.2wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere	36c	1,695$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.45	1,036	47.2%489 W · 547 L	+15.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Liquid	62c	1,604$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$603.44	626	50.5%316 W · 310 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere	34c	1,600$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.99	587	44%258 W · 329 L	+13.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere	27c	1,503$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.62	254	44.5%113 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Team Liquid	75c	1,330$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$329.97	269	57.6%155 W · 114 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Liquid	68c	1,097$746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.13	95	57.9%55 W · 40 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed Team Liquid	65c	999.99$650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	172	48.3%83 W · 89 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Natus Vincere	15c	953.33$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Natus Vincere	45c	888.89$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	603	49.9%301 W · 302 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x389b…8d69backed Natus Vincere	41c	856.71$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2760…ef06backed Team Liquid	79c	846.47$666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.15	107	59.8%64 W · 43 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere	2c	839.74$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	616	9.7%60 W · 556 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked Natus Vincere	24c	701.95$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.03	121	32.2%39 W · 82 L	-8.6wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere	42c	700$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.9	360	54.4%196 W · 164 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Natus Vincere	25c	673.23$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.36	177	40.7%72 W · 105 L	-11.0wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Natus Vincere	32c	669.45$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.22	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed Natus Vincere	40c	625$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Natus Vincere	38c	526.32$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec61…4a2ebacked Natus Vincere	35c	500$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	109	41.3%45 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Natus Vincere	40c	500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	698	35.2%246 W · 452 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf828…00a5backed Natus Vincere	41c	485.9$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.9	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Team Liquid	65c	461.54$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.54	213	46.5%99 W · 114 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere	32c	460.42$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.04	1,272	45%572 W · 700 L	-40.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Team Liquid	67c	420$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.6	156	53.2%83 W · 73 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed Natus Vincere	31c	410$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.79	295	50.2%148 W · 147 L	+8.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ebc…c639backed Natus Vincere	37c	405.41$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Liquid	59c	400$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164	799	59.4%475 W · 324 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Natus Vincere	27c	390$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.93	459	51.9%238 W · 221 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere	7c	342.86$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	641	23.4%150 W · 491 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Liquid	58c	342.86$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.86	641	49.9%320 W · 321 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked Team Liquid	63c	334.89$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.3	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5554…98f9backed Team Liquid	60c	333.33$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.33	60	66.7%40 W · 20 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Liquid	67c	333.24$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.24	538	44.4%239 W · 299 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere	37c	316.51$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.95	1,901	47.6%905 W · 996 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x899e…0863backed Team Liquid	66c	301.19$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.19	264	54.5%144 W · 120 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Natus Vincere	33c	300$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	511	40.3%206 W · 305 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Team Liquid	60c	300$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.1	876	45.7%400 W · 476 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Liquid	62c	300$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.5	807	42.6%344 W · 463 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Liquid	78c	300$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	290	47.9%139 W · 151 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Liquid	64c	299.99$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	881	66.7%588 W · 293 L	+76.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cc5…7b98backed Natus Vincere	37c	270.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb85…22c5backed Natus Vincere	38c	263.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.95	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	44cpaid	+31%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked Natus Vincere	40c	250.35$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	68	55.9%38 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Liquid	65c	239.07$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.95	774	58.5%453 W · 321 L	+75.1wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Team Liquid	59c	230$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.5	678	53.5%363 W · 315 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Natus Vincere	25c	218.7$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	407	45.5%185 W · 222 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…50debacked Natus Vincere	35c	216.28$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ccc…6b82backed Team Liquid	69c	214.64$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.84	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-5.7wins	-0.15per pick	56cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Natus Vincere	28c	209.2$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.77	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Team Liquid	65c	200$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	136	57.4%78 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb876…a86bbacked Team Liquid	66c	199.01$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.66	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-40%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Liquid	65c	196.51$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.85	920	56.4%519 W · 401 L	+78.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Liquid	62c	196.07$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.56	581	52.5%305 W · 276 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb15f…7deebacked Team Liquid	66c	183.61$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.43	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8e1…32bdbacked Natus Vincere	17c	178.3$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Natus Vincere	31c	157.98$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.4	340	63.2%215 W · 125 L	+38.9wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+13%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x43f2…754cbacked Team Liquid	65c	153.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.85	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.25per pick	55cpaid	+83.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf056…b5dfbacked Natus Vincere	37c	150$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+3.2wins	+0.23per pick	49cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Team Liquid	65c	150$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	198	56.1%111 W · 87 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f5…f7c9backed Natus Vincere	34c	149.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Liquid	60c	149.99$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.7	483	52.4%253 W · 230 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Team Liquid	69c	144.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.93	346	67.9%235 W · 111 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Team Liquid	62c	144.87$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.05	436	47.5%207 W · 229 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fc…6033backed Team Liquid	62c	140$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.2	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	36cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d98…b8ffbacked Natus Vincere	38c	139.98$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.19	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.1wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed Natus Vincere	42c	131.05$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.94	225	34.2%77 W · 148 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78db…4d37backed Natus Vincere	42c	122.91$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.56	69	44.9%31 W · 38 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere	33c	121$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.93	779	41.1%320 W · 459 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Natus Vincere	40c	115$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	151	31.8%48 W · 103 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Natus Vincere	45c	113.33$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	721	54%389 W · 332 L	-8.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fd…2aabbacked Natus Vincere	18c	108.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Team Liquid	64c	101.56$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.56	336	45.5%153 W · 183 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Natus Vincere	34c	100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	971	42.7%415 W · 556 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe6…5d3fbacked Team Liquid	61c	100$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.5	94	30.9%29 W · 65 L	-6.0wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Natus Vincere	34c	99.01$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.66	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Team Liquid	65c	98.46$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.46	149	65.8%98 W · 51 L	+8.8wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Team Liquid won
Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 3?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?Under won
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 1?Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event