Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8633e8d49acc9353778b9519f2c3aa5a506481c1ff6d4010c8f59ea69f0c8389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 3c | 391$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 9c | 329.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 37c | 271.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 17c | 208.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…4ed5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 4.4%5 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 177.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 28c | 129.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 118.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 113$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 17c | 108.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 28c | 93.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 86.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 36c | 86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 84.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 78.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 32c | 74.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 31c | 73.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 32c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 80c | 52.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 52.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 38c | 46.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 44.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 42.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 32c | 38.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 33.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 77c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 80c | 12.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.