Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd74432b8e38c8ca2a8137c056f91c81164024d709a93b02d2678410e0e5ea9df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 21c | 401.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.35 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 262.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 57c | 225.69$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 52c | 203$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 176.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 118.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 11c | 110.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 45c | 102.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 101$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 41c | 93.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 20c | 83.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 51c | 83.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 26c | 80.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ac…7284backed Yes | 58c | 68.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 17c | 68.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…0ce5backed No | 77c | 64.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 61.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 51c | 56.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 37c | 47.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 46.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 42.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 39.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 37.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 30c | 36.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 75c | 34.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 29.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 26.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 79c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 23.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.