Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f2e85de5a01de75c9c94d16e6bcdf24845f41e707d1aab70e18d9c9148f4ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 534.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 30c | 422.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 7c | 257.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 10c | 205.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 194.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 9c | 171$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 164.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 151.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 135.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 59c | 129.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 79c | 125.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 103.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 43c | 102.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17c2…3b3fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 75c | 95.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 95.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 59c | 84.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…9466backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 80c | 78.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 21c | 56.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 49.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 39.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 59c | 37.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 35.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 34.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 71c | 27.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 25.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 24.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe675…e1ebbacked No | 55c | 24.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 62c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 18.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.