Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a452261ab343e853a9b7e3f1265b7cdba15bba55ae5b0aeaf92ca0d575312dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 624.48$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.61 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 568.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 2c | 550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 4c | 476.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 5c | 419.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 7c | 383.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 360.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 30c | 332.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 20c | 321.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 31c | 287.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 278.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 5c | 258.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 14c | 253.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 42c | 239.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 28c | 228.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…5cd7backed Yes | 5c | 200.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 28c | 200.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 163.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 12c | 155.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 12c | 142.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 139.32$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 28c | 125.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 14c | 122.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 28c | 119.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 19c | 113.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…ef6fbacked No | 73c | 88.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed No | 72c | 83.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 76c | 80.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 28c | 72.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 25c | 55.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 71c | 48.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked No | 71c | 44.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 40.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 35.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 31.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 73c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 63c | 23.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504c…e5d6backed No | 78c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.2wins | -0.53per pick | 65cpaid | -84%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.