Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3319688929351a5e553eaa943fbc41044bbd440179711662b5a9d44bfb8f1bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 591.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 5c | 469.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 63c | 424.88$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 41c | 328.78$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 18c | 238.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 232.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 185.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 142.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 16c | 136.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…f7adbacked Yes | 36c | 127.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 40c | 123$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 113.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 109.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 103.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 80c | 94.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 85.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 24c | 84.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 78.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 60c | 60.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…9466backed Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 54.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 24c | 54.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 35c | 45.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 45.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…aeedbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 37.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b15…e884backed Yes | 44c | 26.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 24.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 57c | 24.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.