Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86b8ad0ea61b3a6ce9d22add3b50e107345d02f5d09fd77478235ee88f1ab9df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,047$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 10c | 500.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 14c | 487.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2667…0a3abacked Yes | 2c | 404.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 305.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 270.42$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 190.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 183.74$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 26c | 173.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 171.6$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 79c | 163.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 59c | 161.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 159.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…41afbacked Yes | 21c | 140.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 139.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 132.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 128$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 9c | 121.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 112.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 108.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 79c | 100.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed Yes | 17c | 100.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 20c | 95.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 13c | 77.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 75.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed No | 61c | 65.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 44c | 61.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 57c | 59.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 43c | 58.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…0393backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 40c | 49.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 56c | 48.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 33c | 44.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 56c | 44.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 35c | 43.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 40.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…94a6backed No | 63c | 39.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked No | 54c | 37.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked No | 57c | 36.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 41c | 36.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…17cabacked Yes | 44c | 33.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 32.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 61c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 26.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 58c | 23.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 58c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.