Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcf619eb1837d3c4abcaac71cd0c3421b4feb5e0f576b94b7407b281e58a64c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,296$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,108$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 843.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.84 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 687.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.71 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 2c | 521.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 21c | 334$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 15c | 332.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 73c | 301.19$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 277$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 6c | 249$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 246.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 26c | 224.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 208.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 23c | 207.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 75c | 165.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 164.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 23c | 162.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 77c | 160.82$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 160.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…489dbacked Yes | 9c | 157.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…9fe1backed No | 73c | 137.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 25c | 135$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes | 19c | 131.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 31c | 127.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 11c | 120.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 26c | 119.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 27c | 105.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ab…8b8dbacked Yes | 15c | 102.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 19c | 101.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 26c | 101.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 15c | 98.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 19c | 96.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 88.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 80c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 71c | 81.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 20c | 71.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 30c | 71.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 30c | 65.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 72c | 57.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 56.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 74c | 51.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 48.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 25c | 44.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 36c | 43.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 72c | 41.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 69c | 41.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 70c | 37.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 78c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…c745backed No | 76c | 21.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 18.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 76c | 17.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 76c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…1884backed No | 78c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.95 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.