Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe7640982149bc30769b99596586a73d67992dd937a3262d07673d44bff5403c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 5c | 1,450$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 2c | 1,013$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 11c | 707.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 67c | 600.19$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 4c | 431.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 40c | 390$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.8 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…5dbbbacked No | 4c | 389.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 43c | 278.03$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 52c | 246.25$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 246.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 42c | 239.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.39 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 20c | 239.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 63c | 223.57$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 206.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 205.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 45c | 202.43$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 198.96$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 196$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 37c | 165.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 55c | 164.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 61c | 162.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6176…b4dfbacked Yes | 35c | 144.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 37c | 129.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 32c | 125.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 125$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 16c | 124.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 33c | 121.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 115.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 114.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 32c | 113.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 29c | 108.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 108$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 107.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 105.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…94dfbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 28c | 98.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 94.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 90.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 48c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd475…35c5backed No | 56c | 87.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 48c | 81.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 68c | 77.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 37c | 75.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 69.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 19c | 66.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 25c | 60.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13e…1e76backed Yes | 62c | 58.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 53c | 57.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 56.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 32c | 54.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 38c | 54.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 51.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 58c | 51.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…0393backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 32c | 47.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 42c | 44.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 48c | 43.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 55c | 41.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 68c | 40.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 29c | 39.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked No | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…94a6backed No | 72c | 34.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 62c | 34.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab9…6e8ebacked Yes | 68c | 34.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb462…cc95backed No | 29c | 34.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…c745backed No | 42c | 29.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 54c | 29.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…565cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 20.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…257fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.