Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86d85204ffaa9e15fadd1912a4fa3bf1dad767afc8cdd95c06860c5c694b104e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,137$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 8c | 513.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed Yes | 18c | 507.21$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 496.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 495.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 8c | 467.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 10c | 323.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 313.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 311.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 311.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 20c | 279.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 14c | 270.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 195.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 14c | 192$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 189$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 178$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 17c | 174.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 21c | 148.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked Yes | 14c | 122.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 20c | 96.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 16c | 94.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 22c | 90.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 87.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 15c | 82.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f81…d5e5backed Yes | 21c | 65.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 18c | 59.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.