Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74bf2ca322bb9681bdcd20c1854073924686d43645227787661a8bc25562c3be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc054…2050backed Yes | 4c | 1,118$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 1c | 1,109$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 898.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 696.01$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 436.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 9c | 334.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 11c | 307.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 9c | 299.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 7c | 275$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 13c | 265.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 219.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 15c | 189.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 134.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 11c | 122.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 121.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 10c | 118.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 97.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 83.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 16c | 82.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 80.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 74.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 65c | 61.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…7979backed Yes | 37c | 54.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 70c | 43.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 79c | 42.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 77c | 41.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 38.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 17.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 74c | 17.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.