Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff968fc886617416311f65c0d5f8857be08134ef8b81e951bc8d246c1b1285d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 30c | 1,190$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 856.75$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 65c | 419.28$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.75 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 36c | 349.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 334.24$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 324.64$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 39c | 299.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 35c | 285.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 43c | 278.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 268.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 60c | 264.81$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 259$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 244.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 69c | 208.24$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 207$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 199.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 63c | 188.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 171$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 27c | 157.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 156.83$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 57c | 155.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 123.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 116.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 34c | 111.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 103.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 102.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 99.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 70c | 96.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 96.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 75c | 87.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 83.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 33c | 82.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 81.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 46c | 76.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 73.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 35c | 73.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 34c | 59.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 58.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 57.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 43c | 55.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 53.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 48c | 52.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 57c | 51.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed Yes | 43c | 46.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 45.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 44.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 31c | 43.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 45c | 42.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 29c | 37.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 61c | 37.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 30c | 36.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 34.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 33.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 37c | 32.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 65c | 29.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 65c | 25.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 41c | 24.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 24.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 71c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.