Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeccdb01ace95aece25b94539d811c0539d6fe4ff46f13d9140a6fbbe47a1631e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 32c | 1,243$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.76 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 42c | 781.29$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.04 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 453.25$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 439.16$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 20c | 428.53$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.54 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 55c | 418.63$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 380.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 20c | 368.26$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.22 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 24c | 345.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.98 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 324.64$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 291.04$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 278.23$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 261.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.28 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 232.57$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 231.01$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 222.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 221.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 31c | 220$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 34c | 180.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 53c | 180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 177.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 80c | 170$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 164.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 155.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…7bcbbacked Yes | 20c | 138.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 127$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 123.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 31c | 123.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 48c | 122.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 113.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 10c | 108.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 57c | 96.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 43c | 91.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 90$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 76c | 88.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 40c | 82.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 80.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 67c | 79.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 79.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 26c | 78.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 68c | 78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 74.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed No | 76c | 66.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 39c | 65.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 37c | 63.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…e152backed Yes | 33c | 61.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 67c | 58.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 45c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 25c | 56.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…ad10backed No | 36c | 55.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 54.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 48c | 51.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 50.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 46.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 76c | 42.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 40.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 37.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 37.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 34.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 43c | 34.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 32c | 32.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 30.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 29.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 28.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 59c | 28.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 68c | 26.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.