Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86fadd7c1dbb3aca2a91dfef930f63b16aeaecda8cadbc6dfc173d0114d602ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 375.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 296.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 241.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 237.55$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 184.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 14c | 169.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 168.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked No | 50c | 136.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 102.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 99.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 25c | 97.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 96.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 34c | 87.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 59c | 85.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 81.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 70c | 79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 26c | 76.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 73c | 71.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 70.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 45c | 66.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 61.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 47c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 57.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 21c | 49.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 49.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 43c | 46.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 55c | 44.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 43.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 41.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 78c | 40.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 52c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 32.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 29.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 47c | 28.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 77c | 27.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 77c | 27.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…41d3backed Yes | 73c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…8e6abacked Yes | 59c | 20.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 78c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6939…5d1fbacked Yes | 73c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 17.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.