Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x874afea4ad50b4030273d2ecad59359fee60ae19868149476ee1337b349759e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 576.19$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 463.81$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 27c | 414.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 30c | 335.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 262.12$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 228.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 34c | 222.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 218.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 79c | 175$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…ada9backed Yes | 22c | 171.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 32c | 145.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 70c | 134.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 22c | 133.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 75c | 131.7$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 23c | 127.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 72c | 119.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 108.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 107.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 99.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 94.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 87.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 72.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 27c | 71.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…5e41backed No | 74c | 66.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 63.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed No | 78c | 63.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked No | 78c | 62.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 22c | 58.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 24c | 57.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 22c | 54.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 24c | 54.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 72c | 53.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 48.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked No | 65c | 48.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 27c | 40.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…f304backed No | 75c | 38.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 35.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 34.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 30c | 33.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 32.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 73c | 29.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 75c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 75c | 25.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 71c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…abe7backed No | 73c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 79c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…40cdbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.