Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x627eca2b472cf8db6eede5a8be2ba7d88f3acc508d9ea050e19cd6048d6bfa33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 10c | 735$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 61c | 384.35$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.42 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Yes | 9c | 343$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 223.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 221.45$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 48c | 212.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 51c | 195.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 52c | 142.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 58c | 131.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 130.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 129.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae3…ada9backed Yes | 52c | 127.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 46c | 127.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 115.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Yes | 49c | 98.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 51c | 93.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 49c | 92.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 51c | 92.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 84.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 31c | 76.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…2454backed Yes | 49c | 75.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed Yes | 20c | 74.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 51c | 71.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 43c | 70.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 69c | 70.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…e46bbacked No | 59c | 69.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…3addbacked Yes | 50c | 58.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 44c | 55.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 54.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 72c | 53.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 52c | 47.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 52c | 47.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 51c | 47.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed No | 61c | 46.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 51c | 46.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 42c | 45.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b5…0509backed Yes | 34c | 45.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 44.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 60c | 44.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 44.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…cb00backed Yes | 48c | 41.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 27c | 41.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 50c | 38.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 60c | 38.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b63…a28cbacked Yes | 34c | 37.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 28c | 36.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed No | 55c | 34.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 54c | 33.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 53c | 33.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…317bbacked No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe616…2a15backed Yes | 50c | 31.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed No | 54c | 31.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked Yes | 40c | 30.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…5f52backed No | 61c | 29.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 51c | 29.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0858…835dbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…3facbacked No | 66c | 25.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 61c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 23.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 61c | 22.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 55c | 21.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 50c | 20.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 20.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.