Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cc68513f774a3ff9a0b6e8698e88b3c2d96a25d3ebc7a56a0184ec0042d540f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 627.46$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 554.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 15c | 535.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 464.78$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 315.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 8c | 307.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 10c | 296.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 25c | 270.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.75 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed No | 58c | 249.42$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.53 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 66c | 153.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 14c | 141.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 46c | 138.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 131.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 78c | 130.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 27c | 130.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 127.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 127.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 22c | 126.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…6f5fbacked Yes | 79c | 123.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 16c | 119.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 14c | 96.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 20c | 92.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 17c | 92.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 73c | 85.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 21c | 84.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed Yes | 23c | 82.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 18c | 79.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 48c | 78.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 16c | 74.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 64c | 69.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…1e2dbacked Yes | 20c | 68.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 60.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 18c | 59.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 22c | 55.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 25c | 55.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 69c | 53.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 54c | 35.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 56c | 32.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 80c | 32.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 32.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked Yes | 66c | 29.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…d398backed Yes | 74c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…5f37backed No | 80c | 26.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 54c | 19.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.