Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8753c38a81a53c11b5ea599fee66fd058dba636a1d01069e9e4344585c8111d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 39c | 559.28$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.33 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…95bebacked Yes | 40c | 180.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 128.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 109$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…9cd9backed Yes | 49c | 102.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 31c | 101.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 57c | 100.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 59c | 90.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 83.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 69.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 36c | 68.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 61.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 50.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 41.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 41.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 40.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 40.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 39.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 71c | 35.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 34.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 34.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 32.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 33c | 30.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 29.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 65c | 29.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 63c | 27.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 60c | 25.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…cdd9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 24.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 75c | 23.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 23.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 57c | 17.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.