Fifa International · resolved market
Will San Marino win on 2026-03-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8757c1121fe6981316a6992929a662d21f1eb4c03c24f5f2afaafb309c5b0e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 57c | 3,820$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.94 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 43c | 3,080$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.6 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yes | 16c | 2,495$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.18 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked No | 51c | 1,747$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.89 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 17c | 1,735$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.41 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 17c | 1,626$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Yes | 17c | 1,158$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 1,108$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.54 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…05b2backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 16c | 505.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 15c | 341.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 15c | 328.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 16c | 313.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 12c | 275.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 304 | 31.3%95 W · 209 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed No | 61c | 238.62$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 14c | 228.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 161 | 16.8%27 W · 134 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 19c | 187.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 420 | 43.1%181 W · 239 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Yes | 20c | 167.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 164.33$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 371 | 44.5%165 W · 206 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 20c | 163.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…5bfebacked Yes | 13c | 161$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 18c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 130.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Yes | 15c | 127.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 20c | 125.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked No | 43c | 120.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Yes | 20c | 109.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Yes | 17c | 106.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 79c | 92.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84bd…e6c2backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 15c | 72.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 40c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 44.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 68c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 77c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Marino win on 2026-03-31?this page
- Will Andorra win on 2026-03-31?No won
- Will San Marino vs. Andorra end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.