Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump publicly oppose funding bill today?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87587845cd1af1a93d1e5e75607946e2cc33f87cd1e549b36fc0086cd4957639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed No | 1c | 7,900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 1c | 2,451$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 17c | 1,317$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 38c | 1,271$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.89 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 1,070$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 12c | 803.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 36c | 700$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.55 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…1959backed No | 62c | 674.69$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked Yes | 60c | 532.43$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 3c | 479.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…506abacked No | 44c | 460$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…decdbacked No | 36c | 339.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…5b2cbacked Yes | 45c | 209.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 54c | 184.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 64c | 180$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 6c | 178.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…0ad1backed No | 64c | 150.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067a…cee0backed No | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 37c | 145.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 37c | 98.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed No | 38c | 74.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…2961backed No | 61c | 69.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 66c | 60.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 67c | 56.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0917…5539backed No | 69c | 51.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 31c | 50.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 41c | 46.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 30c | 41.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…b187backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…7cb1backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e4…c8abbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfe…8ea7backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.