MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x875acf6fee38f88e64874572ec134250f68b1e6376ab0e1df8469ff006691ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 52c | 25,555$13,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,266.45 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 25,508$12,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,244.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 34c | 323.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed Over | 66c | 248.78$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 243.99$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 231.25$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 67c | 101.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 67c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 48c | 67.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 33c | 66.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 33c | 61.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 50c | 39.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 61c | 25.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 67c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 20.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 13.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 15.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.