MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c7bd21ed65543b03dfe5db199bc583f174457642597b2691aff36d1250543b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 41c | 38,108$15,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,556.41 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 28,282$16,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,437.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 57c | 12,998$7,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,458.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 45c | 10,942$4,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,018.1 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 18c | 2,273$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.33 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 2,193$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 58c | 1,356$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.02 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 47c | 1,222$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.65 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 60c | 855.21$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.22 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 58c | 516.2$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.41 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 494.66$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 76c | 475.11$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.09 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 53c | 376.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.58 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 57c | 330.63$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 48c | 237.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 38c | 195$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 191.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 58c | 166.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 15c | 118.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 49c | 93.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 47c | 86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 53c | 56.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 51c | 55.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 53.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…18a2backed Under | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 41.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 48c | 39.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Under | 63c | 34.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 63c | 32.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 62c | 27.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Under | 64c | 24.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 52c | 20.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…dab4backed Under | 72c | 14.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 13.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 15.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.