MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c7a0d80024e116a588e7bb51916ed26f67966f1ef211182120b5b4b696acb66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 42c | 19,395$8,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,182.69 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 17,783$10,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,172.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,427$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 57c | 1,194$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.16 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 55c | 1,110$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Under | 45c | 1,050$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 825$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 788$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 26c | 654.6$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 57c | 537.02$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.92 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 45c | 275.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 205.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 43c | 162.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 65c | 153.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 43c | 146.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 35c | 143.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 43c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 57c | 88.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 55c | 66.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 55c | 50.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 44.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e65…9929backed Over | 56c | 34.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 33.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 56c | 31.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 59c | 26.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 43c | 24.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 54c | 21.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 62c | 18.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 12.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 13.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 14.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 15.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.