Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x875f259ececa389e19c14a3f87dc0280a472508d954197823cfefc1968d81ca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 3,185$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.98 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 62c | 434$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.92 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 45c | 408$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.56 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 66c | 380.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.73 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 378.05$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 335.31$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.77 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 332$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 313.23$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 284.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 268.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.09 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 242.6$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 205.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 203$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 191.1$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 19c | 185.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 38c | 142.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 37c | 135$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 133.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 128.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 53c | 126.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 126$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 45c | 116.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 115.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 113.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 20c | 113.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 57c | 95.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 55.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 53.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 52.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 59c | 48.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…1851backed Yes | 35c | 47.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 46.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -78%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 44c | 39.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 39.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…6cacbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 27.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 24.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 45c | 24.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 61c | 24.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 22.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 9°C or below on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.