Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8769bb09c974d2d427835ffd1f980948847d5983b26083cd218ad63c54ae68a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 479.15$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 452.51$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed No | 48c | 299.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 32c | 286.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 56c | 283.29$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 69c | 261.24$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 255.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 71c | 241.82$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 77c | 238.97$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 52c | 198.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 189.26$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 188.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 54c | 184.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 176.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 29c | 166.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 65c | 154.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 52c | 149.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 48c | 146.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 49c | 137.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 69c | 130$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked Yes | 77c | 128.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 15c | 122.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 49c | 122.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 68c | 117.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 20c | 113.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 110.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 40c | 88.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 80.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 16c | 78.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 30c | 77.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 41c | 70.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…fd1ebacked Yes | 48c | 70.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…fae8backed Yes | 58c | 69.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked Yes | 59c | 68.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 48c | 68.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 79c | 57.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 26c | 57.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 54c | 49.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 63c | 48.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 63c | 48.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…be20backed No | 29c | 41.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 50c | 39.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 30c | 33.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed No | 46c | 30.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 35c | 30.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…7b7ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…76a4backed Yes | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed Yes | 66c | 26.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8905…4bcdbacked No | 65c | 23.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 52c | 22.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 68c | 21.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 50c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Yes | 56c | 20.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…119fbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 61c | 19.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 63c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 17.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 58c | 17.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 80c | 14.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…e5aabacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +583.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.