South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87a45ded822ecdd0b9262306e30bc00eb38838931c3c5184b9762c1c0d1e8465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 72c | 3,983$2,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.18 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 2,694$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.53 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 1,941$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.74 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 14c | 831.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…dd8ebacked Yes | 37c | 816.21$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 27c | 700$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 24c | 535.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 68c | 371.86$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.57 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 68c | 326.97$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.63 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3840…93ffbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Yes | 9c | 217.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…32e0backed Yes | 25c | 199.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 75c | 189.15$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 75c | 161.63$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 32c | 151.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 673 | 37.1%250 W · 423 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 24c | 142.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d1…dc9fbacked Yes | 10c | 122.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 75c | 109.42$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed Yes | 28c | 107.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 28c | 97.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 25c | 94.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 79c | 91.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 88.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 32c | 85.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 69c | 71.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…c618backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…a298backed Yes | 31c | 64.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 79c | 63.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 722 | 58.6%423 W · 299 L | +28.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 72c | 55.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 60c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 71c | 47.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…ed60backed Yes | 26c | 44.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 59c | 41.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 78c | 34.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Yes | 32c | 32.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 80c | 31.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 30.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked No | 75c | 30.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed No | 76c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked No | 75c | 23.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 193 | 40.4%78 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked No | 75c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…3a5cbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…3bc8backed No | 75c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…2c78backed No | 74c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-08-03?Yes won
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-08-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.