MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d13374b6c5a390d8b281021b271c5606fa2ff871e358b0f4707c480de5d5ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 2,599$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 1,931$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,406$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.35 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 1,400$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,394$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.63 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 1,378$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.97 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 1,288$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.62 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 1,057$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.33 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 1,052$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.64 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 67c | 979.93$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.73 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 971.97$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.52 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 876.79$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 866.52$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.28 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 638.6$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.34 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 544.32$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 529.26$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.36 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 494.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.68 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 446.53$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 380.05$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…e36bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 237.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c3eebacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 196.28$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 160.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 153.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 151.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 147.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 139.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 126.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 117.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 103.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 93.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 72.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 63.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +228%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 54.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 53.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 46.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 45.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 39.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504b…b939backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 36.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 32.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 30.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 29.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 29.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…8064backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 28.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…a43fbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…4a98backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9d…cb2cbacked Boston Red Sox | 71c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.