Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87e5122f02a8e22e96d4c425fab5585635c5d0581d509a9b618ebda1d7e269a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 67c | 305.15$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.95 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 5c | 297.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 69c | 244.87$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 185.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 170.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 169.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 163.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 10c | 161.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 161.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 37c | 160.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 155$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 148.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 148.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 38c | 141$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 140.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 62c | 128.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 8c | 128$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 121.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.89 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 116.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 17c | 115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 111.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 98.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 80c | 93.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 92.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 83.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 80.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 80.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 36c | 79.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 59c | 78.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 71.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 70.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 67.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 39c | 61.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 61.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 45c | 58.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 40c | 57.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 49.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…befdbacked No | 35c | 46.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…74acbacked Yes | 44c | 46.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 40.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…2fc2backed Yes | 39c | 36.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…559ebacked No | 65c | 36.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…da50backed Yes | 35c | 35.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 63c | 30.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 29.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…4856backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb496…2657backed No | 63c | 24.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 63c | 22.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…53d7backed No | 64c | 21.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 61c | 21.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 72c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 60c | 20.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…698abacked Yes | 80c | 19.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…8993backed No | 65c | 19.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 17.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…cf3bbacked No | 64c | 17.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.