TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,937 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes60c2,071$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.6431043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No35c792.37$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.594,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x440a…4774backed Yes58c615.77$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.851553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c576.43$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No40c531.59$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.484,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes38c502.45$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.3716724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes49c499.98$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.9939427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No45c399.74$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.843,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No4c326.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.643,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No12c299.13$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.232,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes42c261.28$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No18c245.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.286,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No16c215.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.542,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes67c215.66$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6638454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes61c200.06$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6113838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes41c193.49$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.499832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No39c191$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.935,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes36c188.48$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3519737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf89e…b571backed Yes61c170.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No47c168.63$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6216847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No37c167.25$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.412,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c166.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.173,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes65c154.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2440226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No37c144.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.81,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes77c139.67$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7627079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Yes47c138.94$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.039345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes44c135$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.65349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No26c134.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.982,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes57c133.34$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.225,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb33…19d9backed Yes77c130.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.066437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No33c129.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.22,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No43c129$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.054,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c125.38$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.844,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes37c124.48$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.671,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c124.09$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No15c123.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.131,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd1e…862ebacked No33c123.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.298727.6%24 W · 63 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x245d…4271backed Yes69c119.83$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.764740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes61c119.67$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8639966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No38c119.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.852,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No35c115.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.282,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes58c113.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.876533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No56c113$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No47c108.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7460054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes44c108$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.484,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No38c101.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.312,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No44c101.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6717747.5%84 W · 93 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked No49c100.78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.017729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes61c100.72$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7816532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No61c98.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.297,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No53c89.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.672,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No36c86.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.712,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No50c81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.893,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes76c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No60c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6014034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No45c79.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3618046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x063e…3ac1backed Yes49c79.42$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.86650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8251…879dbacked Yes55c79.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.661060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes43c74.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.55742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes48c74.26$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.261,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No28c71.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.133,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes78c71.6$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0327047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes60c71.39$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3911724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c70$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No29c68.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.492,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes45c66.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2961249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes32c65.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.274,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes63c65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.857540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No34c63.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.482,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c62.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.295,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.932,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No55c58.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1983459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes37c56.88$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.789635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes32c56.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.915630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Yes67c51.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.916854.4%37 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ddb…0c47backed No58c51.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes64c50.98$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3435264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.514233.1%47 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62a…de09backed Yes53c47.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.573647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes43c46.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes43c46.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5212438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0cd…259dbacked Yes54c46.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes62c45.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5516543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No62c45.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0691861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x947a…cd42backed Yes56c44.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.652254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8270…d5cabacked Yes70c42.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.982259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dbc…d2e1backed No43c41.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes64c41.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7982268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes57c40.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.326,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes64c39.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.678663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes64c38.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.997255.6%40 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No45c37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.523,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x589b…0ec7backed Yes57c36.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.972429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No60c34.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.791,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes39c33.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.328,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No32c32.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.412,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes62c32.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.