Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87e67b47405dca92dcb329d827f5d74b8af3f6bb5325821af48b3ea71df03cc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 60c | 2,071$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.64 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 792.37$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 58c | 615.77$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 576.43$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 531.59$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 38c | 502.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.37 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 49c | 499.98$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.99 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 399.74$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 4c | 326.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 12c | 299.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 261.28$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 245.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 16c | 215.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 67c | 215.66$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 61c | 200.06$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 41c | 193.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 191$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 36c | 188.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.35 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf89e…b571backed Yes | 61c | 170.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 168.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 167.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 166.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 65c | 154.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 144.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 77c | 139.67$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 47c | 138.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 44c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 26c | 134.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 133.34$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 77c | 130.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 129.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 129$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 125.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 124.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 124.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 15c | 123.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 33c | 123.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x245d…4271backed Yes | 69c | 119.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 61c | 119.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 38c | 119.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 115.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 58c | 113.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 47c | 108.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 108$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 101.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 44c | 101.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked No | 49c | 100.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 61c | 100.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 98.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 89.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 86.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 76c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063e…3ac1backed Yes | 49c | 79.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 55c | 79.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 43c | 74.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 48c | 74.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 71.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 78c | 71.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 60c | 71.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 29c | 68.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 45c | 66.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 65.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 63.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 62.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 58.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 37c | 56.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 32c | 56.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 67c | 51.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddb…0c47backed No | 58c | 51.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 64c | 50.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 53c | 47.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 46.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 43c | 46.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…259dbacked Yes | 54c | 46.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 62c | 45.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 45.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…cd42backed Yes | 56c | 44.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked Yes | 70c | 42.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbc…d2e1backed No | 43c | 41.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 64c | 41.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 40.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 64c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 64c | 38.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed Yes | 57c | 36.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 34.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 33.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 32c | 32.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes | 62c | 32.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.