TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,862 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes4c3,704$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0414233.1%47 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes27c1,531$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.2931043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes23c799.97$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9439427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes9c528$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2716724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes14c514.3$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.967729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x440a…4774backed Yes39c468.31$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.391553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No68c444.18$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.794,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No76c403.17$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.683,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes15c384.07$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed No78c350.09$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.212941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes20c321.09$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes17c294.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.773,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes18c288.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.331,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes14c267.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.768,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes23c258.55$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.592,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes16c248.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.898727.6%24 W · 63 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa826…f980backed No73c233.33$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.33850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes18c216.83$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2311612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7137…0c12backed Yes13c194.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.127417.6%13 W · 61 L+0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes6c184.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.122,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c180$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.633,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95e4…4e69backed No77c175.83$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.311080%8 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked No75c168.7$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.382045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes16c167.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1872952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes27c166.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2764446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes14c162.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No72c152$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.814,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes13c150.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.293,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes21c145.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0418222%40 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3be7…ad70backed Yes22c140.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5513411.9%16 W · 118 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes17c138$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0327047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e3…07bcbacked No79c126.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.19976.8%76 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No72c115$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.121,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes31c115$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.656533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No77c111.58$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6860054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes11c103.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3447239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No75c101.16$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.042,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d10…a713backed Yes12c100.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9614332.2%46 W · 97 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+81.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1381848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.661,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbce…507dbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177832.1%25 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c92.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c90.65$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.912,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba88…a08ebacked No79c90$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93764.9%24 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No75c89.83$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.482,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes16c87.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.630333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes28c85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2416437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked No73c83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2919255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No80c81.26$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.512,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes28c80.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.816532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes27c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.329732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd69f…e526backed Yes23c76.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.352114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No77c75.94$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.662,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e18…ad5bbacked Yes22c75.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6690%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes28c73.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5213838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes19c69.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1211724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No73c68.76$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.242,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No75c68.15$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.832,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes19c64.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.383234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked Yes19c62.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.856243.5%27 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No75c60.62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.292,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No74c60.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.732,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes18c60.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.754734%16 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.151,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes18c58.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.666619.7%13 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes22c58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.816543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes23c56.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1338454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No74c50.04$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.842,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No79c49.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.556,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No76c49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.752,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No80c45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd926…e9cebacked No78c44.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.792653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa953…da6dbacked No74c44.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.532065%13 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No69c43.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.72,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No75c41.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.452,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No78c41.32$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0624164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No69c40.06$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4291861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8270…d5cabacked No79c38.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.062259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x589b…0ec7backed Yes32c37.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.782429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.727461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.919260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8977…dce4backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No72c19.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.494,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcd41…ea0bbacked No75c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.77549.3%37 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.